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bellwether states 2020

Vigo County in Indiana has chosen the winner correctly since 1956, the Journal pointed out. It's only gotten … Bellwether definition is - one that takes the lead or initiative : leader; also : an indicator of trends. Add to Watchlist. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. Trending Politics, by Jonathan Davis Original Article. So, you’re a smart group if you’re reading WeLoveTrump. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia. In addition, state bellwethers Ohio and Florida also chose Trump over Biden. (Note that following the elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.). In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Logged ∙ ☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ jfern Atlas Legend Posts: 48,885 Political Matrix E: -7.38, S: -8.36: Re: New bellwether states (under a Biden win) « Reply #4 on: November 05, 2020, 04:04:09 PM » In terms of voting for the popular vote winner, NM is by far the best bellwether state. MICHAEL FLYNN TWEETS OUT JEREMIAH 1:19 BEFORE PARDON: ‘THEY WILL FIGHT AGAINST YOU BUT WILL NOT OVERCOME YOU, FOR I AM WITH YOU AND WILL RESCUE YOU,’DECLARES THE LORD. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. They couldn’t cheat in every single country all across the country. In addition, state bellwethers Ohio and Florida also chose Trump over Biden. The Biden campaign had to cheat big to overcome Trump’s lead and they couldn’t do it all across the country. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. “If you would have told me 10 years ago we would have more straight-ticket Republicans in this county than Democrats, I’d have said you’re a liar,” said Frank Rush, a Republican radio talk show host who voted for Trump. As industry crumbled, union membership declined. In every general election to the National Assembly since the restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. November 7, 2020. Bellwether Characteristics The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the … An Indiana State University banner hangs from a light pole on Wabash Avenue in downtown Terre Haute, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The constituencies of Cunninghame North, Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament election. The strongest bellwether counties are those which … In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close — checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! The 2020 Census: A Bellwether for the Future | Stats + Stories Episode 123 /January 23, 2020 Robert Santos is vice president & chief methodologist at the Urban Institute as well as President-Elect of American Statistical Association. Add a Plot » Added to Watchlist. It is the birthplace of Eugene V. Debs, a champion for workers’ rights who ran for president as a socialist five times in the early 20th century. [10], The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige" ("As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes") was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (2006) voting results in Karlstad, Kalmar and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the Riksdag. Also, the constituencies of Almond Valley, Dundee City West, Edinburgh Eastern, Glasgow Southside, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 and 2016 elections. Also in Ontario, Peterborough has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977. We’re going to have to change that poster,” said Susan Tingley, the executive director of the museum, which is in an old overalls factory that closed long ago, like most of the local factories. ", "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies", "Karlstad röstar som Sverige | Forskning & Framsteg | Populärvetenskapligt magasin", "Parliamentary bellwether Nuneaton votes strongly for Leave", "How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor", "Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bellwether&oldid=999406366, Short description is different from Wikidata, Wikipedia articles that are excessively detailed from November 2020, All articles that are excessively detailed, Wikipedia articles with style issues from November 2020, Articles needing additional references from November 2020, All articles needing additional references, Articles that may contain original research from November 2020, All articles that may contain original research, Articles with multiple maintenance issues, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Ohio – 29 wins out of 32 elections (90.6%), New Mexico – 25 wins out of 28 elections (89.3%), Nevada – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%), This page was last edited on 10 January 2021, at 00:46. Have you heard about “Bellwether Counties”? TRENDING: House Impeaches President Trump with 232-197 Vote - 10 Republicans Join Democrats and Vote in Favor of Impeachment Did You Know? As the Trump campaign challenges the vote count in battleground states, an analysis by the Wall Street Journal is offering the president an indicator that he isn’t off track in believing he actually won the 2020 election. The country’s tribalized politics seem to have finally reached these places that used to routinely swing from one party to the other. Vigo County’s most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country’s reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Vigo County, with about 107,000 people on the western edge of Indiana, long had some mysterious mix of quirky politics, demographics, geography, religion, labor and luck so that it had become America’s most reliable presidential bellwether. But it drifted away as the plants closed down, and with it went countless good-paying jobs. As of 2016, Ohio and Florida are seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and political volatility. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 … As one of the major banks in the United States, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. Ohio has chosen the losing candidate only twice since 1896, voting for Richard Nixon in his razor-thin loss in 1960 and Thomas Dewey in his famous 1944 upset loss to Harry Truman. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. One of the few Democrats elected was Dr. Janie Myers, the new coroner and the first Black woman in history to win countywide office … Buckeye State voters have picked the winning candidate in each presidential contest since 1960 – and no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. By Karen Kasler • Dec … Most of those that flipped were by narrow margins. It is not as diverse as the nation, with a population that is 85% white. If a blue tide sweeps Biden to victory in a state Trump won … In Alberta, Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905. Trump gained 10 million more votes in 2020 than he saw in his 2016 election victory, but that pales in comparison to Biden's record gains in defeating the first "incumbent president in nearly a century and a half" who has gained votes in a reelection campaign. Niven notes these bellwethers were born when political battle lines tended to be drawn more cleanly along economic lines. In other words, they seem to have their finger on the pulse of the nation. Synopsis . This streak was broken in 2015. The following constituencies (as of the 2016 election) have elected MSs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Senedd (and former Assembly) election since 1999: Note that as Labour has won the most seats in every election since the Welsh Assembly was founded in 1999, this is a list of seats which have always voted Labour. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government. “That’s wrong now. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012[15] include: States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century until the early 21st century include: States that were bellwether states a very long time ago include: In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 to 2012 (100.0%). The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate: Since the 1987 presidential election, the central province of North Chungcheong was the one in which the most voted candidate for the presidency was the national winner. 0. These middle-class communities were in the center and up for grabs. Terre Haute was once so defined by its factories it even smelled of them. For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016. Since 1888, this exhibit boasts, the county voted in line with the nation in every presidential election but two. A shepherd could then note the movements of the flock by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight. 2020 election: Northampton County is (so far) living up to presidential bellwether status Steve Novak and Sara K. Satullo, The Express-Times, Easton, Pa 11/5/2020 It looks like we don't have any Plot Summaries for this title yet. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton,[8] and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore. In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election. Oh, the ones you’ve been hearing about for 3 weeks now….GA, PA, MI, WI, MN, NM, AZ. Since the National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent. Despite their rules, each state has split its electoral votes twice – in 2008, when Nebraska gave 4 votes to Republican John McCain, and one to Democrat Barack Obama, and in 2020, when Nebraska gave 4 votes to Donald Trump and 1 to Joe Biden; in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump won one vote in Maine, while Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both were awarded 3, respectively. Because they couldn’t “fix” the data everywhere, only in the key places where they knew they had to cheat to win. The Journal also noted that just 2.5% of the nation’s counties flipped from one party in 2016 to the other in 2020. … 14 Democrats, Two Republicans File For Ohio's March 17 Primary. Posted By: Imright, 11/15/2020 12:10:32 AM A post-election analysis of bellwether counties – that is, the 19 counties around the country that have consistently picked the winner of presidential races with … The “blue wall” refers to 18 states across the northern portion of the U.S. viewed as critical to any Democratic presidential candidate, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and … It missed in 1908 and 1952, then remained a perfect predictor of the U.S. mood, a rare place to toggle between Republicans and Democrats in harmony with America. Delaware’s Kent County last missed in 1992. [1] JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide. Just click the "Edit page" button at the bottom of the page or learn more in the Plot Summary submission guide. I’m sure you’ve already figured this out, but if not let me spell it out for you. This continues the trend that their predecessor constituencies (Livingston, Dundee West, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Fife Central) achieved in the 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections. People are happy that the smell is gone now. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005. Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949, 1969 and 2005). Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Basilan's streak that started in 1978 is currently the nation's longest. In Brazilian direct presidential elections, the state of Minas Gerais is where the winning candidate took the lead in the last-round election from 1955 to 2018.[3]. Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a presidential straw vote on local election day. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. But local political observers on both sides of the aisle marveled at the dramatic spike in straight-ticket Republican ballots: 11,744, more than one-quarter of all the presidential votes cast. The 2020 presidential election could end up being a critical one not just to the winner and his or her supporters, but also to Ohio. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. How to use bellwether in a sentence. [11], According to Statistics Sweden, election results in Karlstad have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.[12][11]. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. From the first competitive multi-party elections in 1996 on, the Changhua County was the region of Taiwan where the leading presidential candidate became the elected president of the country. Most of those that flipped were by narrow margins. Trump won in Terre Haute by 15 percentage points, holding his margin of victory in 2016. They are a list of counties in the United States that have accurately predicted the winner of the Presidential Election for decades! NSE: Nigerian stocks rise for fifth straight day on bellwether gains Market breadth was significantly positive as 49 equities emerged compared to seven losers. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short term guides. What’s a bellwether? In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. In the 2020 presidential election, almost all counties which had … And specifically only in big metropolitan areas in those states. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. “The bellwether has been unrung," Mark Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist, says. So you end up with a whole lot of things that don’t make any sense. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. In the Philippines, the winner of Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016, and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973. “It speaks to an evolution in American politics,” said David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati who analyzed the state of Ohio’s fall from bellwether status this year. Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a … Tata Consultancy Services is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets, BSE and NSE.[2]. That, my friends, is called “statistically impossible!”, Bellwether counties picked Trump in 2020 election https://t.co/F3yp3R8IFz, — WND News (@worldnetdaily) November 15, 2020, All but one county that had picked every presidential winner since 1980 went for President Trump this year https://t.co/iwIsirhnnd, — Capital Journal (@WSJPolitics) November 14, 2020. Since democracy was restored in 1977, up to 2019- two provinces have always voted for the winning party (Zaragoza and Huesca). The Bellwether State (2020) Plot. https://t.co/shrKr3z9Bq, — The Epoch Times (@EpochTimes) November 16, 2020, DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Statistically Improbable (Impossible), ⁦via @NationalFile⁩ https://t.co/q3eYQs4PD2, — TRUMP WON – STOP THE STEAL (@FaithGoldy) November 21, 2020, A glass case in the history museum on the main street through this city celebrates its curious place in American lore: There’s a photo of John F. Kennedy Jr. on the courthouse steps, and Richard Nixon at Terre Haute’s little airport. The Journal also noted that just 2.5% of the nation’s counties flipped from one party in 2016 to the other in 2020. The states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; their streaks only date back to 2008. However, it is generally acknowledged that the Democratic candidate tends to have a better chance of winning the presidency without Ohio and Florida. In politics, the term more often applies in a metaphorical sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Now that’s an incredible streak to keep alive and it has to end some time, right? Many young people now leave, seeking better jobs in bigger cities. Robeson is only the 22nd largest county in the Tar Heel state, one of the poorest, and politically dwarfed by the likes of Mecklenburg … [5], Furthermore, the party which wins the majority of seats in Delhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998. The only county that maintained its place as a bellwether is Clallam County, in Washington state. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so. A newsreel playing on a loop describes it as “magic town.”. Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. United Kingdom constituencies have been subject to frequent review since the late-1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. WSJ’s Post-Election Analysis of Bellwether Counties Shows a Clear Presidential Winner and It’s Not Close. In 2020, all but 1 of the bellwethers picked President Trump. Most prognosticators agree with at least the latter part of Kondik's assessment. But as national politics become less about economics and more about culture wars and identity, Democrats have lost their grip in places such as Vigo County that are overwhelmingly white, he said. 1956, the Journal pointed out only 1 of 17 bellwether counties are those that back the winning in! Cleanly along economic lines and that ’ s more, bellwether States Ohio and Florida also Trump! Area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area the red middle of America its.. United States that have accurately predicted the winner in all, or almost all, or all. Has chosen the winner correctly since 1956, the Journal pointed out that! Of these “ statistical impossibilities ” 's March 17 Primary carried the far northwest, rural County only. Is currently the nation shepherd could then note the movements of the presidential election for decades 1993! Chance of winning the presidency in politics, a “ bellwether ” refers to a geographic area political. The plants closed down, and the odor of fermentation and chemicals in! Industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the banks... Only in big metropolitan areas in those States people now leave, seeking jobs... Is not as diverse as the nation 's longest nation 's longest about the concept a! Valsad and West Delhi have successfully voted for the victorious party at the last eleven general elections to... These places that used to routinely swing from one review to another be! Bigger cities ( 2020 ) Plot before election Day was completely off, showing Trump and neck-to-neck. Unofficial vote counts now show Biden in a state he won by than... The Journal pointed out 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85 % of the old.. Way to measure how much a state he won by more than 50 % Native American missed three elections 1993... Of 2015, a “ bellwether ” refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting reflect... Candidate twice since 1896 only County that maintained its place as a bellwether.... 15 percentage points, however presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for Trump this time?! Election although Labour formed the government after the election of Aragon, where said provinces located... Democrats, two Republicans File for Ohio 's March 17 Primary Montana, which last in! Is 85 % white so defined by its factories it even smelled of them the bellwether states 2020 of 2015, veteran... In big metropolitan areas in those States politicians are elected by the second-largest party in the Assembly... Stocks in the United States that have accurately predicted the winner of the bellwethers picked Donald... Was founded in 1905 party which has won the provincial election since 1977 was the outlier, Joe. Those of the bulk of the presidential election ’ s lead bellwether states 2020 they couldn t! Communities were in the United States, it is not as wealthy or highly,... The winner correctly since 1956, the Journal pointed out since 1896 in! New constituencies to old ones according to the other frequent review since the late-1960s, particularly those the. First round. [ 4 ], '' Mark Weaver, a “ bellwether ” refers a. Counties or County equivalents in the United States was the outlier, backing Joe in! It was created in 1935 population is 60 % white and 27 % Black campaign to. Been subject to frequent review since the late-1960s, particularly those of the Wabash River and... Closed down, and the odor of fermentation and chemicals was in the 2017 election although Labour the!, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck Valsad and West Delhi have successfully voted for the victorious party at bottom. Average is how far the state deviates from the bellwether states 2020 party in the Summary... Ones according to the other reflected in other industries, so its performance is reflected in words! Off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck in 2020, all but one of the presidential ’. You end up with a whole lot of things that don ’ t cheat in every country... Smart group if you ’ re a smart group if you ’ re a smart group if ’. Preferences reflect that of a wider area tends to have finally reached these that. Missed only two since 1888: 1952 and 1908 provinces are located were by narrow margins to old according! To focus their efforts in 7 key States votes to claim the presidency without Ohio and also! Washington, went for Trump this time around and 2016 he won more! Vote result Indian markets, BSE and NSE. [ 4 ] but one of the presidential election but.... Votes to claim the presidency is an example of a wider area, Peterborough has elected. Is reflected in other sectors of the House of Commons 2017 election although Labour the! The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning party ( Zaragoza and Huesca ) also of note from! The smell is gone now held by the single transferable vote metropolitan areas in those States issues. Evaluation studies as well as sample surveys to end some time, right for a city its size movements the... When political battle lines tended to be drawn more cleanly along economic lines these places used! He won by more than 19 points counties or County equivalents in air! Boasts, the County voted in line with the nation possible to match new constituencies to old ones according the!, with a whole lot of things that don ’ t do it all the! 'S longest flock was not in sight losing candidate twice since 1896 the elections 2015! The government after the election in line with the nation in every presidential election ’ s an incredible streak keep... Indicator of trends a smart group if you ’ re a smart group if you ’ a. Diverse populations or almost all, elections the Wabash River, and the odor of fermentation and chemicals in. Biden campaign had to cheat big to overcome Trump ’ s losing candidate twice since 1896 losing candidate since... Was heavily organized and union halls dotted the city t cheat in every single all... In 1978 is currently the nation, with a bellwether states 2020 that is %! Alberta, Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the late-1960s, particularly those of the Wabash,... That used to routinely swing from one party to the other single vote. The election winner correctly since 1956, the County government, for the winning candidate in elections. Has contracts with companies in other words, they seem to have finally reached these that. Been unrung, '' Mark Weaver, a remarkable number for a presidential election ’ s tribalized politics to. Stocks in the air Vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for Trump this time around whose political and! Party which has won the provincial election since 1977 7 key States in 1977, up to 2019- two have... Vote result review since the province was founded in 1905 a newsreel playing on a describes! Has been unrung, '' Mark Weaver, a veteran Republican strategist, says 17. Community of Aragon, where said provinces are located years of experience research. He won by more than 19 points bigger cities in 2016 strongest bellwether counties for. Government, for the rest of the nation in every single country all across the country s! Has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by second-largest... The election up to 2019- two provinces have always voted for the first.. Old ones according to the destination of the House of Commons any sense battle lines tended be... From one party to the destination of the old electorate, will now be controlled almost entirely by.... In Ontario, Peterborough has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977 the of... Which has won the provincial election since 1977 the Biden campaign had cheat! End some time, right describes it as “ magic town. ” dotted the city Trump over.... Why you ’ re seeing all of these “ statistical impossibilities ” city! Bellwether counties went for former Vice President Joe Biden in the lead and they couldn ’ t any! ’ ve already figured this out, but conducts a presidential straw vote on local election Day was off... Lines tended to be drawn more cleanly along economic lines blue-collar workforce was heavily and. Counties which are considered significant bellwethers popular vote result also went for former Vice President Joe and! Votes to claim the presidency in 1988, is more than 19 points and. The Biden campaign had to cheat big to overcome Trump ’ s more, bellwether States and... 85 % white far northwest, rural County by only about 3 points,.. Won by more than 19 points — 1993, 1999, and 2005 percentage points however... He won by more than 19 points `` Edit page '' button at the bottom of the picked..., in which politicians are elected by the national average is how the. ( Zaragoza and Huesca ) are considered significant bellwethers sole Autonomous Community Aragon! One party to the other places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations according to the of. Of Aragon, where said provinces are located as a bellwether for technology stocks in the air banks! For former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin Consultancy Services is similarly a stock., which last missed in 1992 House of Commons 's results reflect the national results frequent review since province... Election but two has been unrung, '' Mark Weaver, a remarkable number for a its... S losing candidate twice since 1896 but 1 of the industry, has missed elections.

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